Economics Speaker Series: Dr. Valentina Galvani
March 16 at 3:30 pm - 5:00 pm
In her lecture, “The U.S. Shale Energy Sector Navigating Domestic Policies in a Fragmenting Global Economy,” Dr. Valentina Galvani examines the economic and financial forces shaping equity returns in the U.S. shale energy sector between 2006 and 2025.
Dr. Galvani is a Professor in the Economics Department at the University of Alberta and has held the position of Chair since 2022. Her research focuses on the structure and functioning of financial markets. She has conducted research projects with the local banking sector for more than a decade under the aegis of MITACS. Dr. Galvani earned a doctoral degree in Mathematical Finance in 2002 from the University of Brescia (Italy), an MS in Economics (2003) and a doctoral degree in Economics (2005) from Purdue University.
Everyone is welcome to attend the lecture, and registration is not required.
Abstract
The seminar will discuss the economic and financial drivers of the U.S. shale energy sector’s equity returns from 2006 to 2025, utilizing a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) methodology. Borrowing costs significantly harm shale returns only during “bearish” (contango) oil-price regimes. A key finding is that the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war uniquely boosted U.S. shale valuations, marking a shift in which shale producers, rather than traditional producers like Saudi Arabia, benefited from geopolitical risk. To ensure sector stability, the study recommends strategic federal support and the establishment of a stabilization fund, specifically targeting periods of low oil prices to mitigate shale companies’ leverage risk exposure.
