Thesis Defence: Voting Behaviour and Racial Identity: Exploring the Relationship Between Ethnic Identity and Its Impact on Voter Turnout in the 2021 Canadian Federal Elections

M H Mahmud, supervised by Dr. Maxime Heroux-Legault, will defend their thesis titled “Voting Behaviour and Racial Identity: Exploring the Relationship Between Ethnic Identity and Its Impact on Voter Turnout in the 2021 Canadian Federal Elections” in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Interdisciplinary Graduate Studies – Power, Conflict, and Ideas theme.

An abstract for M H Mahmud’s thesis is included below.

Defences are open to all members of the campus community as well as the general public. Registration is not required for in-person defences.

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ABSTRACT

In this thesis, we examined the impact of race on voter turnout in the 2021 Canadian Election using data from the Canadian Election Studies Survey 2021. The analysis was conducted using three models: a bivariate model, a socio-demographic model, and a complete model. Initially, the bivariate model showed a significant negative impact of race on voter turnout, with racial minorities less likely to vote than white individuals. Adding socio-demographic factors in the second model reduced this effect but it remained significant. However, in the complete model, which included political engagement and socioeconomic status, the impact of race loses statistical significance. This suggests that other factors, such as political interest, partisanship, political knowledge, employment, and income, play a significant role in explaining voter turnout.

Our comprehensive analysis reveals that political knowledge, civic responsibility, political interest, and partisanship significantly impact voter turnout. Higher levels of political knowledge and interest, a strong sense of civic duty, and political party identification positively correlate with increased participation. Economic stability, evidenced by higher income and employment, also significantly influences voter turnout, highlighting the critical role of financial stability in facilitating political participation. COVID-19-related variables provide mix insights into their impact on voter turnout, with satisfaction with the government’s handling of the pandemic negatively impacting turnout, while views on public health measures positively impact turnout. Duration of residence in the current city also affects voter turnout, with longer residence fostering greater participation.

Certain religious affiliations and regional factors also impact voter turnout. Agnostic and Jehovah’s Witnesses show positive and negative impacts respectively, while regions like Nunavut, Saskatchewan, Quebec, and Northwest Territories show negative impacts. Other factors, such as education, gender, age, immigrant status, language, origin of the immigrant’s country, frequency of political discussions at home, and attitudes towards immigrants, do not have a significant impact when considered alongside other variables. This study highlights the multifaceted nature of voter turnout, emphasizing the interplay of demographic, social, economic, and political factors.